Market chatter suggests that the BJP could win fewer than 300.
The NSE Nifty 50 has slipped 3.4 per cent, or 764 points, in the last five trading sessions, after registering a fresh all-time high at 22,794.70 on Friday, May 03, 2024. In the process, the Nifty 50 index is seen quoting close to its 100-DMA (Daily Moving Average) of 21,970 for the second time in less than a month. Earlier on April 19, 2024, the Nifty 50 had tested the 100-DMA support, and then staged a smart rally of 4.7 per cent, or 1,017 points, to hit the new peak of 22,794.70.
Global financial markets are wrong in hoping that the worst is over in geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in a recent note to investors called 'GREED & fear'. While most investors and the media are focused on United States (US) Federal Reserve policy and the "endless chatter" of Fed governors, Wood believes the news flow in the financial sphere "pales into complete insignificance" compared with the "tectonic shifts" going on in geopolitics.
'We see mid-and small-caps as a real pot of gold.' 'From a 10-15 years perspective, mid-and small-cap are likely to outperform the larger index, as they have done in the past.'
'This can eventually start the end of the current market frenzy, which has lasted for a full year.'
'The main worry is lots of new investors coming into the markets in order to make a quick buck/easy money.' 'Those things are happening again and have happened in the past as well.' 'All that has led to problems.' 'We are not there yet, but will get there eventually.'
Stocks in the automotive, financial, cement, metal, and hotel sectors are likely to benefit if the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes back to power for a third time. The key investment themes have been identified after analysing the Sankalp Patra - the party's manifesto for the next five years - released on Sunday.
While the markets have factored in a number close to 350 for the BJP and almost 400 for the NDA, 50 seats fewer could trigger a market correction
Gold prices have been on an uptrend in the last few months, rising nearly 28 per cent to $2387 per ounce now. This rise in gold price, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is attributed to the demand from China amid lack of investor euphoria as regards the yellow metal. "Recent developments show a distinct lack of investor euphoria as regards gold, the question remains what is driving the current rally.
A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation (CPI) print for March in the US has dashed hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) in June. Analysts now expect the US central bank to start cutting rates in September, provided inflation remains in check and oil prices remain supportive. The markets, analysts believe, partially factored in this possibility.
Fundraising via the initial public offering (IPO) route by companies may touch Rs 1 trillion in financial year 2024-25 (FY25), according to a recent note by Pantomath Group - a mid-market investment bank. During the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), 76 companies tapped the markets through mainboard IPOs, Pantomath said, raising nearly Rs 62,862 crore. This is a 21 per cent rise compared to FY23, the note added.
Mobile wallet adoption is surging in India and swiftly becoming a primary payment option, surpassing traditional methods like cash and cards. Over the next few years, payments via mobile wallets in India are likely to surpass the Rs 531.8 trillion mark in 2028, witnessing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3 per cent between 2024 and 2028, according to GlobalData - a London-based leading data and analytics company. The value of mobile wallet payments in India, as per a GlobalData report, grew at a CAGR of 72.1 per cent between 2019 and 2023 to reach Rs 202.8 trillion ($2.5 trillion) in 2023.
Analysts remain bullish on the road ahead for the equity markets, but warn against volatility on account of domestic and global cues. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections back home and the interest rate trajectory of the US Federal Reserve, they said, will be the two most important factors that the markets will keep a tab on. That apart, the valuation of the Indian markets, they feel, will also be eyed in context of how global peers are performing.
'Rather than taking a very short-term view on the markets, equity investing should be premised on longer term growth opportunities.'
Rekha Jhunjhunwala's net worth has increased by more than 7 per cent, or Rs 2,865 crore, compared to less than 1 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex.
'More than investors, fund houses, and advisors have raised caution and limited flows on small-and mid-caps.'
'We expect the bull-market phase to still persist, but now led by large-caps which offer better valuation and benefit from FII inflows.'
'We expect continued pressure on midcaps, but any sharp correction looks unlikely from here on.'
Investors' desire for companies to prioritise returning cash to shareholders through share buybacks, dividends or mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is at the highest level since July 2015, said a survey by BofA Securities (BofA). Nearly 30 per cent of respondents wanted companies to do so. As many as 226 respondents with $572 billion worth of assets under management (AUM) participated in the March fund manager survey (FMS), said BofA.
'Given the inherent volatility, investors should take at least a three to five-year view.'
Tracking losses in the broader market that has seen the Nifty Smallcap 250 index and the Nifty Midcap 100 indices slip 9 per cent 6.1 per cent in the last three sessions, the frontline Nifty 50 index has remained resilient and registered a fall of 2.2 per cent during this period. Going ahead, can the nervousness in the mid- and small-cap universe spread to the large-cap peers? Most analysts do not think so. They expect a minor dip and a sharp recovery as investors flock to the large-caps in search of safety and value buying as the mid-and small-caps falter.
© 2025 Rediff.com - Investor Information - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances